Strategic Analyst

STRATEGIC ANALYST/NET ASSESSMENT

Location: Norfolk, VA, USA, on-site.

Period of Performance:

Base Period: Contract Award – 31 December 2024 Option Period 1: 1 January 2025 – 31 December 2025

Option Period 2: 1 January 2026 – 31 December 2026

Background:

The Warfighting Development Agenda (WDA) offers a framework to organize the Alliance and Allies’ warfare development activities around five imperatives (Warfare Development Agenda – WDI). Cognitive Superiority is one of the WDIs, aiming at improving understanding on the operating environment through cohesive and shared strategic assessments of the trajectories of present and future threats, strategic paths of adversaries as well as the overall environment NATO operates in.

Net Assessment is a key analytical function to support Cognitive Superiority through empirical, interdisciplinary and evidence-based comparative analysis.

The WDA and SACT tasked SPP SF to develop a Net Assessment capacity at the Allied Command Transformation. Net Assessment in ACT context is a comparative analysis of the evolution and future trajectories of adversarial and own capabilities over time. ACT Net Assessment should create synergies with the current strategic foresight assessment, given its future oriented as well as its trends and data based approach. Net Assessment in ACT will be established as a forward-looking, long-term effort, which is meant to directly support Supreme Allied Commander of Transformation decision making.

Net Assessment functions include:

• Comparative assessment of strategic paths, relative evolution of capacities and capabilities of defence sectors and armed forces over time,
• Challenging primary strategic, operational, doctrinal and technological assumptions in defence planning and warfighting development processes,
• Focused assessment of the evolution of adversarial capacities or capabilities compared to NATO’s own to include identification of decisive asymmetries,
• Focused assessment on the impact of an identified trend in strategic foresight analysis with a view of its effects to NATO`s, as well as adversarial capabilities, over time,
• Research and analysis in support of decision-making processes at NATO ACT.
• Exploitation of data analytic, modelling and simulation techniques.

In order to establish Net Assessment practice at the Allied Command Transformation, as required by the Warfighting Development Agenda, NATO ACT is creating a Net Assessment cell within the Strategic Foresight Branch at the Strategic Plans and Policy (SPP) Directorate.

The cell is required to plan, prepare and conduct research programs, analytical studies and focused assessments, within its stated functions as requested by SACT and directed by DCOS SPP.

The cell is required to coordinate and lead inter-disciplinary, multinational and cross-domain analytical efforts.

ACT Net Assessment capacity should reach initial operating capability in 2023 through a demonstrated delivery of a Net Assessment study. Net Assessment should reach full operational capability by end of 2024 through demonstrating the practice across all analytical functions.

The post is specifically linked to the following work product which has expanded due to NATO 2030 tasking: The establishment of ACT Net Assessment is a Line Of Delivery under the Cognitive Superiority Warfare Imperative under the Warfare Development Agenda supporting NATO 2030 objectives II), III) and IV).

Scope:

Support of all Net Assessment efforts, providing assessments of adversary’s long-term trajectories and promoting high-level strategic thinking through providing analytical support and assessments. Support the planning and execution of Net Assessment studies and activities.

Tasking:

• Plan, prepare, coordinate and conduct Net Assessment analysis and assessments, as directed.
• Employ analytical and research tools at NATO ACT in support of Strategic Foresight and Net Assessment practices with high confidence and support the further development of analytical processes.
• Analyse relevant inputs (strategic foresight analysis, net assessments, intelligence reports) to draw insights for ACT Net Assessment efforts in order to contribute to advancing NATO’s and ACT’s thinking on Cognitive Superiority and the Net Assessment Line Of Delivery.
• Research and assess quantitative and qualitative data in order to provide comparative insight in BLUE/RED future trajectories.
• Contribute to the continuous improvement of ACT Net Assessment practices, through analysis and interaction with NATO Net Assessment community of interest, including Allied nations, NATO-accredited Centres of Excellence, partners, academia and industry.
• Support strategic foresight analysis with qualitative and quantitative assessments
• Support comparative analysis through cross-directorate coordination at NATO ACT, as required,
• Formulate actionable proposals to develop future practices in Strategic Foresight and Net Assessment.
• 9. Cooperate and assist in developing and maintaining NATO Net Assessment community of interest.

Essential Qualifications:

• Demonstrated experience and background in analysis and assessments of policies and strategies development or defence planning;
• Demonstrated experience in government, academic, military or corporate environment in analysis and production of strategic assessments, policies or strategies;
• University degree in international relations, political science, security/strategic studies, economics, history, social sciences, law or related discipline.
• Project experience, including prioritization and risk management.
• Knowledge of defence planning, operational planning and/or capability development processes.
• Previous experience in an international organization / governmental organization, or academic institution, preferably NATO experience.

Desirable Qualifications (not-scored):

• Demonstrated ability to build cooperative relationships with academia and governmental and non-governmental partners;
• Demonstrated capacity to work under general direction within a clear framework of accountability with substantial personal responsibility;
• Demonstrated ability to effectively multi-task and prioritize in a fast-paced environment;
• Demonstrated capacity to work effectively as a member of a multinational and multi- disciplinary team;
• Demonstrated ability to execute a broad range of complex professional or technical work activities in a variety of contexts;
• Demonstrated ability of disciplined and systematic approach to problem solving;
• Demonstrated ability for a comprehensive approach based on credible evidence, the most probable counterarguments and risks;

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